Book #11 Pigs at Odds

Book #11
Pigs at Odds by Amy Axelrod
Axelrod, A. (2003). Pigs at odds. New York, NY: Aladdin.

Summary:
This book tackles the concept of probability in a carnival environment with games. As the piglets enter the fair, they want to go on the rides, while their parents want to start with the booths. Since they can't be in two places at once, Mr. Pig decides to flip a coin, and thus probability enters the story line. After an invigorating ride on the roller coaster, the pigs try their luck at numerous games of chance.

Standards:
SC.2-6 The student will demonstrate through the mathematical processes an understanding of creating questions to collect data, organizing data, describing trends of a data set, and making predictions based on data.

2-6.2 Organize data in charts, pictographs, and tables.

2-6.4 Predict on the basis of data whether events are more likely or less likely to occur.

Objectives:
The student will be able to understand probability in terms of more likely and less likely and determine if a game is fair.

Materials:
Axelrod, A. (2003). Pigs at odds. New York, NY: Aladdin.
Paperclips
(Made prior to lesson:) 
Birthday Spinner
Birthday Month Mat
Birthday Spinner Results Sheet
Counters
Color Spinner
Color Mat
Color Spinner Results Sheet

Procedures:
Read the book, Pigs at odds, aloud to the class. Explain to the class that they will play the Birthday Game like Mr. and Mrs. Pig to explore probability. Working in groups, give each group a Birthday Spinner, a Birthday month mat, a Birthday Spinner Results Sheet, and one counter for each student. Instruct students to place their counters on their birthday month. Tell students to take turns spinning the spinner. Tell the students that the spinner must make at least one complete rotation to count as a spin. Demonstrate a complete rotation for the class. After each spin, one student should record the results (on what month the spinner landed and if anyone won) on the Results Sheet. Spin at least 10 times. Explain to the class that a game is fair if all players have an equal chance of winning. Ask the class “do you think this game is fair? Why or why not?” After some discussion from the class, point out that each month on the spinner is the same size. Suggest that the students investigate another spinner, one with 3 colors. (Note: On the Color Spinner, one color is larger than the other two colors. Do not point this out to the students yet.) Working in groups again, give each group the same materials. Instruct students to place their counters on their favorite color and repeat the same steps the just performed. Remind if necessary. Ask the class on which color did the spinner land the most? Ask “do you think this game is fair? Why or why not?” After some discussion with the class, point out that one color is larger than the other. Ask “if red is the largest color on the spinner and my favorite color is red, do you think I am more likely to win or less likely to win?” and “If my favorite color is blue, and blue is a small color on the spinner, am I more likely or less likely to win?” Revisit the birthday spinner. Ask the class again “do you think this game is fair now? Why or why not?” Students should explain that the game is fair because each person has an equal chance of winning because the months on the spinner are the same size.