Book #12 Probably Pistachio

Book #12
Probably Pistachio by Stuart J. Murphy
Murphy, S. (2000). Probabaly pistachio. New York, NY: Harper Collins.

Summary:
Probably Pistachio is about a boy, Jack, who is having a bad day during which nothing goes as he expects. After soccer practice his coach offers a snack to each of the players. There are seven bags of pretzels, five bags of crackers, and three bags of popcorn in a basket. Coach holds the basket up high as the children randomly pick a snack one-by-one. Jack really wants a bag of popcorn and hopes there is still enough after his friend Alex picks popcorn. But Jack ends up with pretzels!

Standards:
SC.2-6 The student will demonstrate through the mathematical processes an understanding of creating questions to collect data, organizing data, describing trends of a data set, and making predictions based on data.

2-6.4 Predict on the basis of data whether events are more likely or less likely to occur.

Objectives:
Students will be able to make predictions and understand probability in terms of certain, likely, unlikely, and impossible.

Materials:
Murphy, S. (2000). Probabaly pistachio. New York, NY: Harper Collins. Color tiles
Opaque bag
Color tile chart

Procedures:
(Prior to class, place enough color tiles in a bag for each student to pick one tile. Record the number of tiles of each color. For example, for a class of 20, place 10 blue tiles, 7 red tiles, and 3 yellow tiles in a bag. Modify the Color Tile Chart to include the appropriate colors if necessary.)
Read the book aloud to the class. Throughout the book, ask the class if it is likely or unlikely for Jack to get what he wants. Then announce that each student will pick a tile from a bag without looking in the bag(s). Announce and record on the board the number of tiles of each color in the bag(s). Display the Color Tile Chart on an overhead or on the board. Ask students to predict what color tile they will pick. Record the students predictions on the Color Tile Chart. Before each student picks a tile, ask if it is likely or unlikely that he/she will get the color he/she predicted. Point out the number of remaining tiles of the color the student predicted to pick. If there are no tiles of that color remaining, explain to the students that it is impossible to pick the color he/she predicted. Likewise if there is only one color left and the student predicted to pick that color, it is certain that the student will pick his/her predicted color. After the student picks a tile, record what color tile was picked by placing it on the chart in the appropriate column or by marking the chart with a tally. Also record what color was picked next to their prediction. Discuss if the student’s prediction was correct. Repeat the last two steps for each student. Review the terms certain, likely, unlikely, and impossible. Finally, ask students to give examples of something that is certain or impossible to occur. For example, “It is certain that I will go to bed tonight” or “it is impossible that I can fly like a bird.”